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机构观点:黄金需求格局会因新冠疫情而改变?|原油平台有哪些

  机构观点之State Street Global Advisors:黄金需求格局会因新冠疫情而改变?

  来源:市川新田三丁目 

  译者  王为

  文中黑字部分为原文,蓝字部分为译文,红字部分为译者注释或补充说明

  Gold Nuggets: COVID-19 Changes the Landscape of Gold Demand

  by  George Milling-Stanley

  • What do the Q1 results tell us about gold’s market dynamics? Will changes intensify in the future, and how?2020年一季度的行情揭示影响金价的涨跌因素都有哪些?这些变化因素未来是否会强化以及如何强化?

  • With COVID-19 likely continuing to reverberate global economies as they reopen, what is the outlook for gold amid the changes?

    新冠疫情有可能继续影响重启后的全球经济活动,这些变化会对金价走势产生何种影响?

  At first glance, it might seem that the COVID-19 pandemichad only a very limited impact on the global gold market in the first quarter of 2020. As the chart below shows, total demand was little changed, at 1,083.8 metric tons — actually 1% above Q1 2019. But this superficial similarity with prior periods masks some very real changes taking place within gold’s internal market dynamics — changes that look like they may increase in intensity as the rest of the year unfolds.

  初看上去,新冠疫情对2020年一季度全球黄金市场的影响似乎非常有限。如下表所示,全球黄金需求总量几乎没啥变化,仍达到1,083.8吨,比2019年一季度的需求量增加了1%。但是在这种与以往相比没啥变化的表面现象背后全球黄金市场内部的供求关系却在发生一些实质性的变化,并且在今年剩下的时间里这些供求关系方面的变化似乎将愈演愈烈。

  Q1 Gold Demand Holds Steady… but the Sources Shift Dramatically

  2020年一季度全球黄金需求总量维持稳定,但需求的来源却有相当大的变化

  First-quarter statistics show some significant emerging trends in gold demand. Once stay-at-home orders took hold across various countries, it quickly became obvious that the demand for gold jewelry was going to drop substantially. China was the first country to be hit hard by the virus, and India imposed perhaps the most draconian lockdown measures. These two countries are regularly the two largest consumers of gold jewelry in the world.

  2020年一季度的数据显示,全球黄金需求发生了一些明显不同以往的趋势性变化。在居家办公发订单的上班模式风靡全球各国后,人们迅速地看到黄金珠宝方面的需求出现了大幅下降。中国是首个遭受疫情影响的国家,印度则实施了也许是全球最严酷的封城措施,中印通常是全球对黄金珠宝首饰需求最旺盛的两个国家。

  As for the rest of the world, jewelry stores were mostly closed and defined as non-essential businesses, leaving online merchandising to try to take up the slack – with varying degrees of reported success. In the final tally, global demand for gold jewelry fell 39% year-over-year, with the biggest declines coming in China and India at 65% and 41%, respectively.

  在全球其他地方,珠宝店被定性为并非必不可缺的生意,大多已关门歇业,只能依靠线上销售模式予以补救,但效果则良莠不齐。总体上看,全球黄金珠宝需求按年率计算下跌了39%,最大的下跌来自中国和印度,需求量分别降低了65%和41%。

  下图为2010年以来历年一季度全球黄金需求总量中各项主要需求来源的变化情况,深蓝色线柱为珠宝需求,灰色线柱为投资需求

  What One Hand Taketh Away, the Other Giveth Back

  关上了一扇门,却打开了另一扇窗

  But gold demand history illustrates an unusual compensatory mechanism, in that during periods when jewelry demand drops dramatically there is often a significant pickup in demand for investment, as investors seek the benefits of gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.And so it proved during the原油平台有哪些 opening three months of 2020, when the demand for gold as an investment soared a full 80%.

  但历史经验显示在黄金需求方面存在一个别开生面的补偿机制。每当珠宝方面的黄金需求出现大跌,投资方面的需求通常都会大涨,因投资者会将黄金视为避险资产而大加追捧。因此在2020年一季度再一次看到这一幕, 投资方面的黄金需求在三个月里飙升了整整80%。

  下图中,深蓝色区域为珠宝方面的黄金需求量,绿色部分为投资方面的黄金需求

  These trends sharply rearranged the typical gold demand landscape. As the chart above shows, jewelry normally accounts for anywhere between 50% to 60% of total demand; in the latest period, jewelry dropped to just 30%. Investment demand, meanwhile, which typically runs at 20% to 30% of the total, climbed to 50%. The remaining 20% of demand was attributable to uses in technology and net purchases by central banks. These changes are already much more dramatic than what we witnessed in 2009, during the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis. Back then, jewelry demand softened to 50% of the total, while investment demand edged upward to account for 40%.

  这些趋势性的变化深刻改变了传统的黄金需求格局。如上图所示,在全球黄金需求总量中珠宝方面的需求一般占五成到六成,但最近该比率降至只有30%。与此同时,通常在黄金总需求中占比两成到三成的投资需求如今则攀升到50%。剩余20%的需求来自高科技行业或央行的净买入。这些变化在程度方面已超过全球金融危机刚刚过后的2009年。

  Life After Q1: Can the Good Times Start Rolling Again?

  2020年一季度过后好时光会重来吗?

  What of the future? Notably, many of the pandemic-related lifestyle changes did not occur until well into Q1, with the lockdowns in China and India only in force for about half of the period. Stay-at-home orders did not become widespread in most states in the US until mid-March. The authors warn that the impact of COVID-19 on the gold market may be far more dramatic in Q2.

  未来会如何?值得注意的是,有很多与疫情相关的生活方式方面的变化在2020年一季度真正到来之后才开始发生,中国和印度只是在一季度大约后半期的时候才开始采取封城措施。在美国大多数的州里居家办公下订单的办公方式只是在原油平台有哪些三月中旬才开始变得司空见惯。在此提醒投资者注意,新冠疫情对黄金市场的影响将在2季度变得更加明显。

  With the world reopening in only very slow increments, we expect jewelry demand to be hit even harder in Q2. One ray of hope is that the adoption of online merchandising by jewelers in China clearly appealed to the tech-savvy younger generation in Q1, with one leading retailer reporting that their digital store attracted a substantial number of new customers within two days of its launch in late February.Online sales are likely to accelerate in the coming months, and this could help to mitigate some of the overall decline in demand for gold jewelry in China. In addition, local government initiatives to stimulate the economy and promotions by the retail jewelry trade may also help to limit the expected decline. In March, many cities distributed e-vouchers in a bid to boost consumer spending, while leading jewelry retailers offered discounts on a wide range of products. As a result, the year-over-year decline in Chinese jewelry sales in March was lower than in February.

  由于全球经济重启的步伐非常缓慢,我们预测黄金珠宝方面的需求会在2季度遭遇更大幅度的下降。一丝希望还是有的,一季度中国珠宝企业引入的线上销售模式颇受熟悉高科技的年轻一代欢迎,一家中国珠宝行业中的翘楚称其数字化改造后的店铺在2月末开业仅两天就吸引到大量的新消费者。线上销售模式有可能在未来几个月加速推广,并有可能在一定程度上挽回中国黄金珠宝整体销售下降的局面。此外,中国地方政府采取的刺激经济并提振珠宝零售消费等方面的措施也有助于减缓销售下跌的速度。三月份中国很多城市发放电子消费券鼓励个人增加消费,大型珠宝零售企业也开始对各类珠宝饰品进行打折促销。因此,按年率计算的三月份中国珠宝销售额的下跌幅度已小于二月份。

  As for investment demand, net inflows into US gold-backed ETFs year-to-date have already reached $14 billion, higher than all of 2019.  Inflows in April totaled $9.3 billion, suggesting that Q2 could see investment demand potentially growing even more than it did in Q1. There is no question that the demand landscape may see even more dramatic changes. The gold price is up over 14% year to date and up over 33% on a rolling 12-month basis.Any surprise to the upside in jewelry demand versus expectation, coupled with continuing strong investment, could be supportive for the gold price.